Why US ‘no-Hire, no-fire’ labour market trend may be ending in 2025
For more than a year, economists described the US labour market as static: not shrinking, yet not expanding. Layoffs were steady, unemployment remained historically low, and hiring proceeded slowly. Workers desiring job changes faced obstacles, while many employees felt secure in their current roles. This autumn brought a wave of job-cut announcements from major employers, signaling potential shifts in the prior delicate balance.
“All the signs point to us moving from a ‘no-hire, no-fire’ labour market to ‘no-hire, start-to-fire’ labor market,” noted Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union to Yahoo Finance.
The concern is amplified by a rise in WARN notices—formal alerts companies issue before large layoffs. In October, WARN filings rose across 21 states to 39,006, a level among the highest recorded since 2006. Although the total remains below the dramatic layoffs seen during the 2020 pandemic, the Great Recession, and earlier spikes this year, the trend is clear: more firms are reducing their workforces.
These developments come as the economy inches toward a potential reassessment of the long-standing hiring restraint. The continuity of low unemployment and steady layoffs had underpinned a unique period of stability in the labor market, but evolving corporate restructuring signals and the updated WARN data suggest a possible rebalancing in 2025.
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