Numerical Weather Prediction at 60: A Journey of Innovation at the Met Office
Sixty years ago, the Met Office began a journey that revolutionized weather forecasting in the UK and worldwide. The adoption of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in 1965 marked a pivotal moment, starting a period of scientific progress, technological breakthroughs, and steadily improving forecast reliability. Today, as the 60th anniversary of NWP is celebrated, we highlight the significant advancements achieved and anticipate an exciting future ahead.
Early Experiments to Operational Forecasts
NWP at the Met Office originated in the early 1950s when pioneering scientists like Fred H. Hinds, guided by John S. Sawyer, performed the first experimental forecasts using the EDSAC computer at Cambridge. Despite technological limitations, these initial efforts set the foundation for future developments.
By 1959, the Ferranti Mercury computer, nicknamed ‘Meteor’, was installed at Dunstable, marking a major achievement as the first computer dedicated to NWP research.
On 2 November 1965, the Met Office produced its first operational computer forecast, an event that gained wide media attention and marked the beginning of modern weather prediction.
The real breakthrough arrived with the English Electric KDF9 computer, ‘Comet’, at Bracknell in 1965, enabling operational forecasts and advancing the field significantly.
Advancing Science and Technology
The decades following saw rapid progress in numerical weather prediction, driven by continuous improvements in computing power, scientific understanding, and data collection techniques.
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