Canadian History of Floor-Crossing
Terms describing MPs who switch political parties range from "traitor" and "shameful" to "brave" and "principled." Yet one description rarely applies to such politicians: re-electable.
Recent Developments
In Ottawa, there was surprise when longtime Conservative Chris d'Entremont joined the federal Liberal caucus, with Prime Minister Mark Carney suggesting others might follow.
Historical Context
Floor-crossing has been part of Canadian politics since Confederation. However, its consequences at the polls have become harsher over time.
Electoral Impact Over Time
Semra Sevi, assistant professor at the University of Toronto’s political science department, studied MPs who switched parties from Confederation to 2015.
- Before the mid-20th century, floor-crossers typically retained nearly the same vote share in the election after switching as before.
- Since the 1970s, their electoral support has generally declined.
“Switching parties is an extremely risky move that almost always hurts a politician's chances of re-election,” said Semra Sevi.
“As parties become institutionalized, the electoral cost of switching has rose dramatically. So that makes political survival outside of one's party increasingly unlikely. There are rare instances of success.”
Summary
While floor-crossing is a longstanding practice in Canadian politics, its effect on politicians’ electoral success has worsened, making such moves a significant risk.