NASA: The worst of El Nino is still to come
Scientists say we have not yet seen the peak of this year's "Godzilla" El Nino
www.cbsnews.comHere’s the latest on El Niño years and what to expect.
Key takeaways
- El Niño is currently in a weakening phase from its peak in 2023–24, but its warming influence on global temperatures can persist for months after the peak.[2]
- Official outlooks indicate a significant chance that El Niño conditions persist into early to mid‑2026, with probabilities that can keep global temperatures elevated relative to long-term trends.[3][2]
- The World Meteorological Organization and NOAA emphasize that even as El Niño weakens, the residual heat in the climate system ensures continued abnormal warmth and related extreme weather patterns in many regions through the coming months.[9][2]
- If a new El Niño forms later in 2026, it could push 2026 or 2027 toward record warmth depending on timing and strength; some experts note the potential for near-record or record warmth even without a new El Niño, due to background warming.[2][3]
What this means for weather and climate
- Temperature: Expect higher odds of above-average temperatures in many regions through the spring and into summer 2026, with potential for hotter-than-average months even if El Niño weakens or neutral conditions occur in some periods.[3][2]
- Precipitation and extreme events: El Niño tends to shift rainfall patterns, often bringing drought in some regions and heavier rainfall/flood risk in others; these patterns can extend beyond the peak El Niño period and interact with other climate drivers.[9][2]
- Seasonal planning: Sectors like agriculture, water management, and disaster readiness should prepare for sustained warmth and variability through mid‑2026, plus the possibility of additional El Niño activity later in the year.[2][3]
Illustrative context
- In its March 2024 update, the WMO highlighted a 60% chance El Niño would persist March–May 2024 and an 80% chance of neutral conditions later; this underscores the extension of El Niño's influence beyond its peak and the importance of ongoing monitoring to adjust forecasts.[2]
- NOAA and climate services continue to monitor ENSO developments, noting that the atmosphere takes time to respond to El Niño, which can keep global temperatures elevated even as ocean signals weaken.[9]
Would you like a succinct, region-specific outlook (e.g., Northeast U.S., Buffalo, NY, or global wind/precipitation trends) or a brief one-page briefing with dates, probabilities, and recommended actions for preparedness? I can pull the latest regional updates and provide a short, printable summary with cited sources.