Here are the most recent pieces of reporting I can find about polling in the California governor race featuring Xavier Becerra vs. Tom Steyer:
- Becerra surged and moved up to a tie with Steyer in one of the latest surveys (Emerson College / Inside California Politics coverage). The article says Steyer was leading Democrats, with Becerra tied with Tom Steyer for a top spot in the most recent polling it discussed (as presented in that report).[1]
- Other recent polling reports also describe the race tightening between Becerra and Steyer, with them repeatedly portrayed as Democratic frontrunners. For example, one report says new polling showed Becerra and Steyer tied for the Democratic lead.[3]
- A separate earlier datapoint also had them essentially in a close contest (with Steyer leading by a small margin in that particular poll snapshot, while Becerra was on the rise).[4]
What to watch next (so you can interpret polls)
- Look at who the poll is “likely Democratic voters” vs “all likely voters.” In this race, Becerra/Steyer may look closer or farther depending on the voter universe and undecideds.
- Check the field size/top-two dynamics. California’s top-two system means “who finishes 1st/2nd” can matter as much as “overall percent,” especially with a crowded ballot.[3]
If you tell me which pollster/source you care about (e.g., Emerson, Gudelunas Strategies, etc.) and/or the date range (past week vs past month), I can narrow this to the tightest, most relevant polling updates.
Sources
Under California law, the two highest vote getters in the June 2 primary, regardless of party affiliation, will go on to the Nov. 3 general election.
justthenews.comBillionaire Tom Steyer is leading Democrats with 14% of the vote, followed by Becerra and former U.S. Rep Katie Porter tied at 10%.
www.calonews.comAs more undecided voters appear to be finding a candidate they like, and following some televised debates, a new poll finds billionaire Tom Steyer continuing to hold a lead among the Democrats, and only one point behind Republican Steve Hilton.
sfist.combecerra vs steyer polling showed California Democrats still undecided in the closing days before the June 2 primary as ballots kept going out from early May. Roughly 60 candidates were on one ballot under California’s top-two primary system, leaving voters to sort through a crowded field for Gavin N…
www.el-balad.comJust last week, Becerra trailed behind billionaire activist Tom Steyer who was maintaining the Democratic lead. New polls released Monday show that the two candidates are now tied, pointing to them as the Democratic frontrunners.
www.calonews.comDespite more than $30 million spent on negative ads against him, Steyer has gained four points since late April, while Becerra has slipped from 21% to 19%. Bianco has fallen out of contention with just 12 percent support. “This poll confirms what we’re hearing on the ground across California: voters are looking for an outsider who will take on the political establishment to lower costs and deliver real change,” said Heather Hargreaves, Campaign Manager for Tom Steyer for Governor. “Xavier...
www.tomsteyer.comChuck Rocha and Mike Madrid break down the seismic California Governor's race, where Xavier Becerra is surging despite being outspent 150-to-1 by billionaire Tom Steyer, who has already burned through $200 million, roughly $166 per vote. They unpack Steyer's undisclosed influencer campaign flooding Latino social media, what it means for the integrity of political messaging, and why Latino voters in California are rallying behind Xavier Becerra anyway. Plus: * Trump's cognitive decline - Can...
podimo.com