El Niño forecast 2026: What NOAA's latest update means for summer
Experts give El Niño conditions a 62 percent chance of emerging later this year.
www.newsweek.comHere’s the latest on El Niño intensity forecasts for 2026:
- The consensus from major meteorological centers points to El Niño developing in 2026, with most forecasts indicating emergence during the mid-year and potential to persist into late 2026 or beyond. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the IRI have highlighted increasing odds through the summer, though official intensity remains uncertain and depends on evolving ocean-atmosphere conditions.[1][5][6]
- Current projections suggest the event could reach moderate to strong intensity by late 2026, with some forecasts showing anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region exceeding +1.5°C and possibly approaching +2°C in the peak period. However, forecast confidence is tempered by the spring predictability barrier, so intensity estimates carry notable uncertainty.[2][8]
- Regional impacts are likely to be broad: warmer global temperatures on average, shifts in rainfall patterns, and heightened risk of extreme weather events in some regions (e.g., North America’s southern tier and parts of South America) while other regions may experience different effects. The exact timing and strength will drive the degree of these impacts.[6][8]
Illustrative snapshot:
- If El Niño strengthens as some models indicate, you might expect a wetter pattern in the southern United States and drier or warmer conditions in northern areas, alongside elevated hurricane season activity or suppression depending on regional nuances. This is a broad forecast trend rather than a guaranteed outcome, given current uncertainties.[5][8]
Cited sources:
- NOAA and IRI projections for 2026 El Niño likelihood and timing.[1][5][6]
- Forecasts indicating potential moderate to strong intensity with spring predictability caveats.[8][2]